Thedawn of the 21st century has seen many non-traditional security threats, such as cyber security, increasing population, resource scarcity, climate change, economic instability and food shortages. Out of these non-traditional security threats, climate change is most alarming because it is a global phenomenon. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns. Due to its abnormal behaviours, climate change has exposed the world, particularly Pakistan, to many hazards. Due to its geographical location, the economic impacts of climate change on Pakistan will worsen in years to come. It has been impacting Pakistan’s socio-economic sectors for the last decade.
Although Pakistan ranks 135th in greenhouse gas emissions, it is still the 8th most vulnerable country, according to the Climate Risk Index 2021. Because of unseasonal rains, floods, glacier lake outburst floods, and rising water levels, Pakistan has already lost billions of dollars in the form of infrastructural destruction, loss of agricultural land, depletion of freshwater resources, agriculture disruptions and many more.
Moreover, the most prone region to climate change in Pakistan is Gilgit Baltistan because of its hilly terrain and abundance of non-polar glaciers. Gilgit Baltistan was affected the most during the last floods.
Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Pakistan
Calamities caused by climate change directly impacted Pakistan’s economy. For example, the 2010 flooding cost Pakistan 9.6 billion dollars in damages. Overall, Pakistan suffered billions of dollars in flood damages and financial losses. In 2022, Pakistan faced one of the deadliest floods of its history. According to the World Bank, Pakistan’s brunt losses are over $ 30 billion, around 10% of Pakistan’s GDP; more than $ 16 billion is needed for immediate reconstruction.
1. Devastated Agriculture Sector
Being an agricultural country, Pakistan mostly depends on its agriculture sector to meet its needs, and almost 45% of the workforce is directly linked to the agricultural sector. Besides, it contributes 21% to the country’s GDP and accounts for 18% of total exports. https://pssr.org.pk/issues/v5/2/climate-change-impacts-on-pakistan-and-proposed-solutions.pdf. Any damage to this sector or arable land seriously affects Pakistan’s economy. Climate change affected arable land and exposed yield production to climate vulnerabilities. For example, many studies suggested that temperature increases could shift Pakistan’s cropping season and permanently eliminate some crops. A 14.7% and 20.5% decrease in wheat and rice crops has been observed in the past few years. The agriculture, food and livestock, and fisheries sectors suffered a loss of 3.7 billion dollars in a devastating flood between June and August 2022, and the long-term losses to the sectors are estimated at 9.24 billion dollars (report by the Planning Commission of Pakistan).
According to the United Nations, the floods have hit almost 800,000 farm animals and two million acres of crops and orchards. Between 80 and 90 per cent of Pakistan’s crops have been destroyed, with a particular impact on essential food sources and export items, including rice, wheat, sugarcane, mango trees, date palms, and vegetables like chillies, onions, and tomatoes. Cotton crops have also been hard hit.
2. Infrastructural Damages
Unseasonal monsoon rains and glacier lake outburst floods caused havoc and destruction in Pakistan. During the last decade, these natural calamities have been happening more frequently and have exposed Pakistan’s infrastructure to the dangers. The floods of 2022 and the series of floods before 2023 washed away roads, bridges, and buildings and seriously damaged Pakistan’s stagnant economy. According to South Asian Voices, data till September 2022 showed that 12,718 km of roads, 390 bridges and over 1.8 million homes had been destroyed. https://southasianvoices.org/the-economic-costs-of-pakistans-floods/. The transport and communication sector, which keeps the country interconnected, also suffered, and it is estimated that this sector has suffered losses of almost 3.3 billion dollars. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/28/pakistan-flood-damages-and-economic-losses-over-usd-30-billion-and-reconstruction-needs-over-usd-16-billion-new-assessme#:~:text=Pakistan%3A%20Flood%20Damages%20and%20Economic,USD%2016%20billion%20%2D%20New%20Assessment.
3. Human Security is at Risk
Moreover, climate change has directly and indirectly affected human security in Pakistan. Particularly, the marginalized communities in Pakistan suffered the negative outcomes of these floods. People from low socio-economic status could not recover from the economic losses caused by such events because of the loss of livelihood, savings and income resources, pushing them further down into poverty. For example, it is estimated that more than 11 million people will be pushed below the poverty line. https://southasianvoices.org/the-economic-costs-of-pakistans-floods/.
4. Outburst of Infectious Diseases
In addition, the additional health and hygiene concerns also cause a significant economic loss. Being a developing country with an unstable economy, Pakistan will bear more epidemics. The outbreak of diseases like Malaria, Dengue, diarrhoea and cholera in the flooded regions needs profound and pragmatic solutions to keep the population safe and healthy. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey, public sector health expenditure was only around 1.2 per cent of GDP in 2020-21. The global outbreak of COVID-19 has already disrupted the delivery of essential health services; the floods are expected to worsen the situation further. https://southasianvoices.org/the-economic-costs-of-pakistans-floods/.
5. Internal Displacement and Migrations
Lastly, because of floods, rising water levels, glacier lake outbursts, and other climate-related events, people living in disaster-prone areas and down the streams were forced to leave their respective areas, triggering internal displacement. More people are estimated to migrate to urban areas for livelihood and better opportunities. If not dealt with a practical and reasonable approach, such migrations could cause conflict between people over resources. According to the Climate and Migration Coalition, more than 10 million were forced to migrate internally during the 2022 floods.
Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Disaster Prone Region of Gilgit Baltistan
Gilgit-Baltistan, the northern region of Pakistan, is severely exposed to these events because of its fragile mountainous ecosystem, low socio-economic conditions and scattered population. Situated among Hindukash, Karakoram and the Himalayas, surrounded by fast-growing economic countries and home to one of the world’s largest glaciers and snow-peaked mountains, any climatic change can cause havoc and destruction in the region, and it happened in the past. These climate change events are a threat to the community as well as the economy of the region.
1. The Threat of GLOF and Fast-Melting Glaciers
Gilgit-Baltistan is home to one of the largest glaciers outside the polar region, spreading over a vast area of 15000 km2 and comprising 5000 big and small glaciers, making it more vulnerable toclimate change catastrophes. These glaciers have been melting abnormally because of rising temperatures and causing dangers to the areas down the streams. Once these melting glaciers are collected in lakes and rivers, they can outflow and cause flash floods. People in Gilgit Baltistan depend on the water from these glaciers and mountains to meet drinking and agricultural needs. Any change in natural patterns could affect the lives and ecosystems of the region. Empirical evidence indicates that 30% to 50% of existing glacier mass could disappear by 2100 if a global warming scenario in 2-4 degrees occurs. Nearly 3000 such big and small lakes formed, of which 36 are unsafe and on the verge of an outburst. For example, Glacier Lake Outburst Forest (GLOF) events occurred in Bagrote Valley, Kanday, and Gojal.
2. Agricultural and Infrastructural Losses
Situated among the mountains and comprising hilly areas, the arable land is only 2% of the total area of Gilgit-Baltistan. People in this region primarily engaged in subsistence and kitchen farming to meet their needs. Largely, communities depend on the water from rivers and nallahs (ravines) to irrigate their lands. According to the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA), almost 13794 acres of land were lost to climate-related natural calamities between 2010 and 2015.
GB has poor infrastructure due to hilly terrain and limited economic resources, and it largely depends on Islamabad for development projects. Events like floods, landslides, avalanches and GLOF have destroyed existing infrastructure for years. According to the Gilgit Baltistan Disaster Management Authority, during the monsoon of 2023, a total number of 107 houses have been partially or fully damaged, almost 2km of roads have been washed away, and many bridges have been partially or fully damaged. Other data shows that between 2010 and 2015, 57 water supply systems, 56 bridges, 580044 RFt water channels, 87070 RFt protective bunds, and 608km of roads were destroyed.
3. Endangering Livelihood
People in the area have limited economic opportunities and largely depend on government jobs or agriculture and livestock to earn livelihoods. People in low socio-economic conditions are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; the same is the case with people in this region. Because of this vulnerability, climate change has directly impacted the lives of the people of Gilgit Baltistan. According to GBDMA, a total of 500 animals perished during the monsoon of 2023. Other data shows that 1,11,539 fruit trees, 13,794 acres of cultivated land, and 5,500 animals, including cows, sheep, goats, and donkeys, perished between 2010 and 2015.
4. Food Security
Gilgit Baltistan is a food-deficit region with only 2% of cultivable land. People in the area depend on other parts of countries and subsidies to meet their needs. Providing the current scenario combined with the above factors, it is evident that these climate-triggered events can cause threats to food security and a mass level of malnutrition. Fisheries is another field on which people depend. Masses in the region are associated with trout farming on a micro-scale and use the trout for commercial and domestic purposes. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data shows rising temperatures and flow rate variations have negatively impacted trout farming. Fresh water from the mountains is a fundamental source of food security for many farmers in the region. However, changing weather patterns can have enormous effects on food production.
The Bottom Line
Pakistan is the 8th most vulnerable country to climate change because of its geography. The economic impacts of climate change on Pakistan are evident in recent floods. The fragile economy of Pakistan was devastated by the 2022 floods, inflicting billions in financial losses and causing thousands of deaths. Moreover, Gilgit Baltistan, the northernmost region of Pakistan, is even more prone to climate change than the rest of the country because of its hilly terrain. It is home to most non-polar glaciers in the world
